There are many reasons for Theresa May to call for a general election. The Conservatives do not have any competition. Labour is weak, and the Liberal Democrats are still recovering from the disastrous coalition. The Conservatives are going to walk through this election stronger than ever. Labour will lose some seats to the Conservatives, who will have a stronger majority. Jeremy Corbyn will step down the following day. This is a perfect move by May. Triggering Article 50 did not collapse the UK economy. Currently, the economy is somewhat stable. It is all merry for now. For now.
This makes it the best time to call a general election. If you are the ones in charge, then you should call an election when the country is relatively strong. Voters are satisfied with how things are so they would oppose change. Why change anything if everything is sailing smoothly? People do not like change in general, but they especially don’t like it when things are going well for them.
There is, however, a wave approaching over the horizon. This may shake our boat and upset millions of voters. There have been rumours of a global recession. The last recession was in 2008, which is 9 years ago. A recession usually happens ever 4-10 years. If this is correct, then we are due a correction by the end of 2018. Perhaps May sees the recession coming too, and believes it is better to have an election before a crash rather than during or after it.
This logic makes a lot of sense, especially if we look back to the 2010 general election in the UK or the US Presidential election in 2008. Cameron blamed the crisis on Labour and their policies and this worked. People wanted to try something new when everything was down. Same thing happened in the US. George Bush got the blame for crash and Obama was voted in as President. This shows how a crash at the tail end of a government’s term. The government gets the blame and they do not have enough time to recover from the economic downturn.
On the other hand, if the economy takes a downward spiral at the beginning of a term, then things can only go up for the government. If there is a correction mid 2018, and there was not a general election the Tories would only have 2 years to bring the economy back on track as the elections would be in 2019. Having the election now gives the Conservatives 4 years to bring things back on track. They will be the party who brought the UK out the slump, which would make them the best candidate in 2021 once again.
Perhaps reading so much about the stock market has skewed my perspective on this whole issue. Maybe May does not see a recession coming, but that thought is more troubling than my initial thought.